Stock markets lost ground this week - Stocks retreated this week after the number of new coronavirus cases increased, fueling fears of a global economic slowdown. China, the number one exporter of products and the number two economy, has entire regions where people are quarantined in their homes. They cannot go to work, or shop. It is widely believed that China’s moves to add stimulus to their economy will help. Yet the economic impact to China will still spill over to the rest of the world. Investors in the U.S. feel safe with the economy so strong, allowing markets to stay quite solid. Major U.S. stock market indexes hit all-time highs just one week ago but dropped off those highs this week as analysts forecasted a softening in corporate profits in the next quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,992.41, down 0.4% from 29,108.51 last week. It’s up 2.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,327.75, down 1.6% from 3,380.16 last week. It’s up 3.0% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,576.59, down 1.6% from 9,731.18 last week. It’s up 6.9% year to date. 
 
U.S. treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.46%, down from 1.59% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 1.90%, down from 2.04% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates remain at lowest levels in 3 years - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on February 20, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.49%, almost unchanged from 3.47% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.99%, almost unchanged from 2.97% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.25%, down slightly from 3.28% last week. Rates were even lower on Friday. Expect next week’s rates to be about 1/8% lower if they remain at Friday’s levels.
 
January 2020 California home sales report - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 396,550 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That marked a 10.3% increase from the number of homes sold last January. It should be noted that January 2019 marked the fewest sales in a month in over a decade. The number of sales has rebounded over the last several months. The statewide median price was $575,160, down 6.5% from December, and up 7.1% from last January. The median price is the point at which ½ the homes sell for more and ½ the homes sell for less. Perhaps there were an unusual number of sales at the lower end in January, as we have seen prices increasing rapidly due to multiple offers and low inventory. The unsold inventory index in January was 3.4 months, down from 4.6 months in January 2019. On a regional level the number of sales, median price, and supply of housing were as follows: In Los Angeles County the number of sales increased 16.7% from last January. The median price paid for a home in Los Angeles County was $617,520, up 9.1% from January 2019. There was a3.2-month supply, down from a 4.9-month supply one year ago. In Orange County the number of homes sold increased 22.1% from one year ago.  Themedian price paid for a home in Orange County was $855,000, up 7.3% from last January. There was a 3.4-month supply, down from a 5.4-month supply one year ago. In Ventura County the number of sales rose 13.9% from January 2019. The median price in Ventura County was $660,000, up 7.3% from January 2019. There was a 4.8-month supply of homes for sale, down from a 7.2 month supply last January.


Author, 
​Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending February 15, 2020
 
Stock Markets Hit Record Highs Again This Week – Stocks closed higher again this week with all major indexes recording substantial  year to date gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 29,398.08, up 1.0% from 29,108.51 last week. It’s up 3.0% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,3380.16, up 1.6% from 3,327.71 last week. It’s up 4.6% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,731.18, up 2.2% from 9,520.51 last week. It’s up 8.5% year to date. 
 
U.S. treasury bond yields – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.59%, unchanged from 1.59% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.04%, unchanged from 2.05% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates remain at lowest levels in 3 years - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on February 13, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.47%, almost unchanged from 3.45% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.97%, unchanged from 2.97% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.28%, down from 3.32% last week. 
 
California housing affordability increases in the fourth quarter of 2019 - The California Association of Realtors reported that 31% of California households could afford to purchase a $607,040 median-priced home in the fourth quarter of 2019. That was up from 28% in the fourth quarter of 2018, as substantially lower interest rates offset price gains. A minimum annual income of $119,600 was needed to purchase a $607,400 median priced single-family home with a monthly payment of $2,990. That payment included principle, interest, property tax and insurance with a 20% down payment, and a 30-year fixed loan.  Affordability also increased for condominiums and townhomes from one year ago. The report revealed that 41% of California households could afford a $480,000 median priced condominium or townhouse, up from 37% one year ago. An income of $94,400 was needed to qualify for a monthly payment of $2,360 on a median priced condominium or townhome. Single family home affordability in Los Angeles county was 27% in the fourth quarter of 2019, up from 24% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The median price in Los Angeles County in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $617,310, and the monthly payment was $3040. . Single family home affordability in Orange County was 26% in the fourth quarter of 2019, up from 20% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The median price in Orange County in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $828,000, and the monthly payment was $4,070.  Single family home affordability in Ventura County was 31% in the fourth quarter of 2019, up from 29% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The median price in Ventura County in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $660,000, and the monthly payment was $3,250.
 
 
Author, 
​Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending February 8, 2020
 
The number of new jobs added in January exceeds expectations - The Department of Labor Statisticsreported that U.S. employers added 225,000 new Jobs in January.  That number eclipsed analysts’ expectations of 158,000 new jobs.  The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.5% (a 50-year low) to 3.6%, as more employees entered the labor force.  Wage growth rose with hourly wages 3.1% higher than last January. 
 
Stock markets had the largest weekly gain in six months - Stocks rebounded from last week’s steep losses, the worst week since October, with their best week in six months. While last week investors sold off stocks because of fears that the Coronavirus would slow global growth, they ignored those fears this week and stocks rebounded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 29,108.51, up 3.0% from 28,256.03 last week. It’s up 2.0% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,327.71, up 3.1% from 3,225.52 last week. It’s up 3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,250.51, up 1.0% from 9,150.94 last week. It’s up 6.1% year to date. 
 
U.S. treasury bond yields slightly higher – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.59%, up from 1.51% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.05%, up from 1.99% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates lowest in 3 years - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on February 6, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.45%, down from 3.51% last week. The 15-year fixed was 2.97%,down from 3.0% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.32, up from 3.24% last week. 
 
Author, 
Syd Leibovitch

Economic Update for the week ending February 1, 2020
 
Stock Markets drop on fears of Coronavirus - Stocks had their worst week since October after investors grew concerned about the economic impact of the Coronavirus.  The World Health Organization declared an international public-health emergency. This week the Fed left interest rates unchanged.  The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. GDP, the broadest measure of the economy, grew at a rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and at a rate of 2.3% for the full year of 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,256.03, down 2.5% from 29,989.73 last week. It’s down 1.0% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,225.52, down 2.1% from 3,296.47 last week. It’s down 0.2% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,150.94, down 1.8% from 9,314.91 last week. It’s up 2.0% year to date. 

U.S. treasury bond yields drop back to near record lows – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.51%, down from 1.70% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 1.99%, down from 2.14% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 

Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on January 30, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.51%, down from 3.60% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.0%, down from 3.04% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.24%, down from 3.28% last week. 
 
January 31, 2020 Month End Economic Update
 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the month at 28,256.03, down 1.0% from 28,538.44 on December 31. The S&P 500 closed the month at 3,225.52, down 0.2% from 3,230.78 at the end of 2019. The NASDAQ closed the month at 9,150.94, up 2.0% from 8,972.60 on December 31, 2019. 
 
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields dropped in the first month of 2020 - The 10-year U.S. treasury bond yield closed the month at a 1.51%, down from 1.92% on December 31. The 30-year treasury yield ended the month at 1.99%, down from 2.30% on Dec. 31.
 
Mortgage Rates dropped in January - The January 30, 2020 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.51%, down from 3.72% on January 2, 2020. The 15-year fixed was 3.0%, down from 3.16% on Jan 2.  The 5-year ARM was 3.24%, down from 3.46% on January 2 ,2020. 
 
California existing home prices surged in December - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales totaled 398,880 in December on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 7.4% from December 2018. The median price paid for a home in December was $614,090, up 10.3% from December 2018. That marked the largest year over year price increase since May 2014, and the first double digit year over year price increase in 5 1/2 years.  Inventory levels continued to drop. There was just a 2.5-month supply of homes listed for sale in December, down from a 3.5 month supply one year ago. Inventory levels dropped 26.5% from one year ago, and December marked the lowest inventory level in 7 years. On a regional basis, in Los Angeles County the median price increased 9.0% year over year. In Orange County the median price increased 7%. In Ventura County the median price increases 2.7%. 
 
U.S. Existing home sales surge in December - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing homes sales surged 10.8% in December, from the number of homes sold nationwide in December 2018. The median price increased 7.8% year over year in December.  That marked the 94th straight month of year over year price increases. There was a 3-month supply of homes for sale, down from a 3.7 month supply last December. 


The U.S. Jobs report will be released next Friday.

Author, 

Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending January 25, 2020

Stock markets lower for the week - After several weeks of steady gains, stocks declined moderately from all-time highs this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,989.73, down 1.2% from 29,348.10 last week. It’s up 1.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,295.47, down 1.0% from 3,329.62 last week. It’s up 2.0% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,314.91, down 0.8% from 9,388.94 last week. It’s up 3.8% year to date. 

U.S. treasury bond yields lower week – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.70%, down from 1.84% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.14%, down from 2.29% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 

Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on January 23, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.60%, down slightly from 3.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.04%, almost unchanged from 3.06% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.28%, down from 3.39% last week. 

California existing home prices surged in December - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales totaled 398,880 in December on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 7.4% from December 2018. The median price paid for a home in December was $614,090, up 10.3% from December 2018. That marked the largest year over year price increase since May 2014, and the first double digit year over year price increase in 5 1/2 years. Inventory levels continued to drop. There was just a 2.5 month supply of homes listed for sale in December, down from a 3.5 month supply one year ago. Inventory levels dropped 26.5% from one year ago, and December marked the lowest inventory level in 7 years. On a regional basis, in Los Angeles County the median price increased 9.0% year over year. In Orange County the median price increased 7%. In Ventura County the median price increases 2.7%.  

U.S. Existing home sales surged in December - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing homes sales surged 10.8% in December, from the number of homes sold nationwide in December 2018. The median price increased 7.8% year over year in December. That marked the 94th straight month of year over year price increases. There was a 3 month supply of homes for sale, down from a 3.7 month supply last December. 

Author, 
​Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending January 18, 2020


Stock markets close at new record highs again this week - Investors were encouraged by a number of reports and developments this week. President Trump signed a long awaited phase one trade deal with China.  Holiday retail sales were expected to be strong, and cane in even stronger than expected.  U.S. Banks were among the first to report fourth quarter profits and profits were higher than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 29.348.10, up 1.8% from 28,823.77 last week. It’s up 2.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,329.62, up 2.0% from 3,265.35 last week. It’s up 3.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,388.94, up 2.3% from 9,178.86 last week. It’s up 4.6% year to date. 

 
U.S. treasury bond yields almost unchanged this week – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.84%, almost unchanged from 1.83% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.29%, almost unchanged from 2.28% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey taken on January 16, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.65%, unchanged from 3.64% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.06%, unchanged from 3.07% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.39%, up from 3.30% last week. 


December existing-home sales data will be released next week. Look for those numbers in next Saturday’s update. 
 
Author, 
Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending January 10, 2019
 
U.S. Economy added 140,000 new Jobs in December – The unemployment rate held steady at a 50-year low - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 140,000 new jobs in December. That was below analysts’ expectations of 160,000 new jobs. For the year, 2.11 million jobs were created in 2019. Although, that was down from 2.68 million new jobs added in 2018, it marked a record of 10 straight years of job growth. The unemployment rate ended the year at 3.5%, down from 3.9% in December 2018. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 1969. Wage growth,which has been unusually stubborn over the last 10 years, rose just 2.9% year over year. It’s unusual to have such low wage growth with such low unemployment. Usually low unemployment means more competition for fewer workers, which pushes wages up. Rises in the minimum wage in many states and cities accounted for most of the wage gains. The gains were mainly at the lower wage levels. Other than wage growth, which was disappointing since the expansion began 10 years ago, everything else about these job reports have been stellar, marking a decade of record-breaking job growth. 
 
Stock Markets – Major indexes closed at records again on Thursday, and the Dow exceeding 29,000 for the first time ever. Unfortunately, stocks pulled back on Friday after a job report was released that did not meet expectations. Stocks ended the week higher in the first full week of trading of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,823.77, up 0.7% from 28,634.88 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,265.35, up 0.9% from 3,234.85 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,178.86, up 1.8% from 9,020.77 last week.  
 
U.S. treasury bond yields almost unchanged this week – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.83%, almost unchanged from 1.80% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.28%, almost unchanged from 2.26% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates lower for the week - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey taken on January 9, 2010 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.64%, down from 3.74% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.07%, down from 3.16% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.30%, down from 3.46% last week. 
 
Author, 
 
Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending January 4, 2019

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,634.88, down from 28,645.26 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,234.85, down from 3,240.02 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,020.77, up from 9,006.62 last week.  
 
U.S. treasury bond yields slightly lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.80%, down from 1.88% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.26%, down from 2.32%  last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates steady this week - The January 2, 2010 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.72%, almost unchanged from 3.74% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.16%, almost unchanged from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.46%, almost unchanged from 3.45%  last week. 

Author, 
​Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending December 28, 2019


Stock markets closed the week at record highs for the 34th time this year -  Although there was not a lot of new data this week, MasterCard reported that retail sales from November 1 to December 24 were up 3.5% from the same period last year. Stock markets are on track to end the year with their largest percentage gains in a decade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,645.26, up 0.7% from 28,455.09 last week. It is up 22.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,240.02, up 0.6% from 3,221.22 last week. It is up 28.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,006.62, up 0.9% from 8,924.97 last week. The NASDAQ is up 35.7% year to date. 
 
U.S. treasury bond yields slightly lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.88%, down from 1.92% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.32%, almost unchanged from 2.34% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates mostly unchanged this week - The December 26, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.74%, unchanged from 3.73% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, unchanged from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.45%, up from 3.37% last week. 


Author, 

Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending December 21, 2019 
​
Stock markets closed the week at record highs - Stock markets closed Friday with their 31st record high in 2019. After last week’s announced preliminary trade deal with China, a trade deal with Canada and Mexico passing in Congress, increased economic growth in Asia, signs of a Brexit deal, increased retail sales, strong consumer confidence, and solid U.S. corporate profits investors are ending year with great confidence. Not even the impeachment of a U.S President for only the third time in history could dampen investor confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,455.09, up 1.1% from 28,135.28 last week. It is up 22% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,221.22, up 1.7% from 3,168.80 last week. It is up 28.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,924.97, up 2.2%, from 8,734.88 last week. The NASDAQ is up 34.5% year to date. 
 
U.S. treasury bond yields higher this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.92%, up from 1.82% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.34%, up from 2.26% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates unchanged this week - The December 19, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.73%, unchanged from 3.73% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, unchanged from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.37%, almost unchanged from 3.36% last week. Unfortunately, rates rose late in the week. They will be a little higher next week. 

December California existing home sales report - The California Association of Realtors reported that state-wide existing single family home sales totaled 402,880 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in November, up 5.6% from the number of homes sold last November. The statewide median price was $589,770, down 2.6% from October, but up 6.4% from November 2018.  The unsold inventory level, the measurement of how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales rate, stood at a 3.1 month supply in November, down from a 3.7 month supply one year ago. On a regional level sales were as follows:  Los Angeles County had a 5.9% increase in the number of sales compared to one year ago. The median sales price was $594,840, up 7.4%  from $553,940 last November. There was a 2.9 month supply of housing, down from 3.9 months one year ago. Ventura County had a 1.9% decrease in the number of sales from one year ago. The median sales price was $660,000, up 2.5% from  $643,740 last November. The supply of housing for sale was 4.4 months, down from 5.4 months last November. Orange County had an increase of 6.9% in the number of sales from one year ago. The median sales price was $822,000, up 3.4% from  $795,000 last November. The supply of housing for sale was 3.1 months, down from 3.9 months last November. 


December U.S. existing home sales report - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of total existing home sales increased 2.7% in November from the number of homes sold last November. The nation-wide median price increased 5.4%, from November 2018. The supply of housing stood at a 3.7 month supply, down from 4 months last November. 


Author,

Syd Leibovitch