Economic update for the week ending December 14, 2019
Stock markets rise on trade deal - A limited trade agreement was announced this week between The U.S. and China. This deal calls for halting the trade war. President Trump stated that with this “phase one” agreement new tariffs that were set to take effect Sunday will not be enacted, and tariffs placed on some Chinese goods in September will be cut from 15% to 7.5%. China will reduce tariffs on some U.S. goods. They also agreed to increasing purchases on U.S. agricultural goods. This was just one week after President Trump said he was in no rush to make a deal which caused stocks to fall last week. News of an impending deal began to leak out early in the week and an announcement was made Friday that a limited trade deal had been struck. Once again markets closed the week at new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,135.28 up 0.4% from 28,015.16 last week. It is up 20.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,168.80, up 0.7% from 3,145.91 last week. It is up 26.4% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,734.88, up 0.9%, from 8,656.53 last week. The NASDAQ is up 31.6% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.82%, almost unchanged from 1.84% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.26%, down slightly from 2.29% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates slightly higher this week - The December 12, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.73%, up slightly from 3.68% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, up slightly from 3.14% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.36%, almost unchanged from 3.39% last week. Home sales data should be released next week. November home sales will be included in next weeks update. Author, Syd Leibovitch
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Economic update for the week ending December 7, 2019
Employers Added 266,000 New Jobs in November - Unemployment rate dropped to lowest level since 1969 - The Department of Labor reported that 266,000 new jobs were added in November. This eclipsed the 187,000 new jobs expected by economists that were polled. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, from 3.6% in October. That marked the lowest unemployment level since 1969. Average hourly wages grew 3.1% from one year ago. Stocks rally after blockbuster jobs report to recover from losses earlier in the week - Despite strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday retail holiday sales, stock markets dropped sharply early in the week after President Trump announced increased tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil on Monday. Tuesday, he stated that he was in no rush to complete a trade deal with China, and that it may not happen until after the election. New tariffs are set to kick in December 15th, 2019. That’s a date we will be looking at. On Wednesday, he announced raising tariffs on French and UK imported wines and cheeses from 25% to 100%, because they were not paying their expected 2% of GDP to NATO. Fortunately, on Friday, a blockbuster jobs report stunned the market. Stocks made up all their losses from earlier in the week. Investors are quite optimistic with so many new jobs created, such low unemployment, historic stock market levels, and robust holiday retail sales. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,015.16, down 0.1% from 28,051.41 last week. It is up 20.3% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,145.91, almost unchanged from 3,140.98 last week. It is up 25.3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,656.53, down 0.1% from 8,665.47 last week. The NASDAQ is up 30.5% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields end week higher - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.84%, up from 1.78% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.29%, up from 2.21% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows - The December 5, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.68%, unchanged from 3.68% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.14%, almost unchanged from 3.15% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.39%, down slightly from 3.43% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stocks close the week higher - Despite dropping sharply on Friday, stocks closed the week and the month higher. Stock markets hit record highs for the 26th time this year before dropping on Friday. Optimism on an impending trade deal with China has pushed stocks higher over the last eight weeks. Stocks dropped Friday after President Trump signed a bill supporting pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. It was widely speculated that he would veto the bill in fears that it would antagonize China and harm the trade deal negotiations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,051.41, up 0.6% from 27,875.62 last week. It is up 10.3% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,140.98, up 1.0% from 3,110.29 last week. It is up 25.3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,665.47, up 1.7% from 8,519.88 last week. The NASDAQ is up 30.5% year to date.
U.S. treasury bond yields unchanged this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.78%, unchanged from 1.77% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.21%, unchanged from 2.22% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows - The November 27, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.68%, unchanged from 3.66% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.15%, unchanged from 3.15% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.43%, slightly up from 3.39% last week. California October 2019 existing home sales report - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 402,240 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in October. That was 1.9% higher than last October. The statewide median price was $605,280, up 6.0% from October 2018. The unsold inventory index stood at a 3 month supply of homes for sale, down from a 3.6 month supply one year ago. Inventory levels have shrunk to the 2017 record low levels. On a regional basis: Los Angeles County home existing home sales were up 2.8%, and the median price was up 5.4% from October 2018. Orange County existing home sales were up 12.9%, and the median price was up 1.2% from last October. Ventura County existing home sales were up 14.5%, and the median price was up 1.5% from October 2018. Nationwide home sales and prices rose in October - The National Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales in October increased 4.6% from the number of homes sold last October. The median price paid for a home in the U.S. also increased 6.2% from one year ago. That marked the 92nd straight month of year over year increases in the median price. Inventory levels were lower than one year ago. There was a 3.9 month supply of homes for sale in October, down from a 4.1 month supply in October 2108. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stocks dropped from all time highs to end the week slightly lower - Stock markets closed slightly lower this week after six straight weeks of gains that pushed markets to record highs last week. With the Dow up 20%, the S&P up almost 25%, and the NASDAQ up over 28% year to date, markets are on track for a historic year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 27,875.62, down 0.5% from 28,004.89 last week. It is up 19.5% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,110.29, down 0.3% from 3,120.85 last week. It is up 24.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,519.88, down 0.2% from 8,540.83 last week. The NASDAQ is up 28.4% year to date.
U.S. treasury bond yields lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.77%, down from 1.84% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.22%, down from 2.31% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates drop to 3 year lows which are near 50 year lows - The November 21, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.66%, down from 3.75% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.15%, down from 3.20% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.39%, down from 3.44% last week. California October 2019 existing home sales report - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 402,240 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in October. That was 1.9% higher than last October. The statewide median price was $605,280, up 6.0% from October 2018. The unsold inventory index stood at a 3 month supply of homes for sale, down from a 3.6 month supply one year ago. Inventory levels have shrunk to the 2017 record low levels. On a regional basis: Los Angeles County home existing home sales were up 2.8%, and the median price was up 5.4% from October 2018. Orange County existing home sales were up 12.9%, and the median price was up 1.2% from last October. Ventura County existing home sales were up 14.5%, and the median price was up 1.5% from October 2018. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stock markets soared to record their sixth straight week of gains - Investors seem confident that a limited trade deal between China and the U.S. is nearing completion. Manufacturing, which had dropped sharply on fears of reduced sales due to tariffs, has increased for the third straight month according to a key global index. All major U.S. stock market indexes closed the week at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,004.89, up 1.2% from 27,681.24 last week. It is up 20% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,120.85, up 0.9% from 3,093.08 last week. It is up 24.4% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,540.83, up 0.8% from 8,476.31 last week. The NASDAQ is up 28.6% year to date.
U.S. treasury bond yields moderated to lower levels following last week’s sharp rise - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.84%, down from 1.94% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.31%, down from 2.43% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates slightly higher this week - The November 14, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.75%, up from 3.69% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.20%, up from 3.13% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.44%, up from 3.39% last week. Home prices rose in 93% of the nation’s housing markets in the third quarter of 2019 - The National Association ofRealtors reported that single family median prices increased year over year in 93% of its measured markets in the third quarter of 2019. That was up from a year over median price increase in 91% of the U.S. markets in the third quarter of 2018. The national median price paid for a home increased 5.1% in the third quarter of 2019 from the third quarter of 2018. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stocks up for the fifth straight week - Stock markets extended their gains and finished the week at all time record highs. Recession fears have been pretty much eliminated, as continued trade progress and a relaxing of tariffs has occurred. Third quarter corporate earnings were higher than expected. New jobs have been strong. Unemployment is near 50 year lows. Inflation has been tame, and the Fed has lowered rates. All these factors have investors more bullish and have drives stocks to record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 27,681.24, up 1.2% from 27,347.31 last week. It is up 18.7% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,093.08, up 0.9% from 3,066.91 last week. It is up 23.4% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,479.31, up 1.1% from 8,386.40 last week. The NASDAQ is up 27.7% year to date.
U.S. treasury bond yields up sharply this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.94%, up from 1.73% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.43%, up from 2.21% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates slightly lower this week - The November 7, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.69%, down from 3.78% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.13%, down from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.39%, down from 3.43% last week. Unfortunately, rates rose late in the week. Next week’s rates will be 1/8% - 1/4% higher next week. Lower rates and higher incomes make homes more affordable in the third quarter of 2019 - The California Association of Realtors reported that 31% of California households could afford to purchase a $613,470 median priced home in the third quarter. That was up from 30% in the second quarter of 2019 and up from 27% in the third quarter of 2018. The income needed to qualify to purchase a median priced home with a monthly payment of $3,010 was $120,400. 43% of California households could afford to purchase a $465,000 median price condominium or townhouse with a yearly income of $91,200 needed to qualify. Author, Syd Leibovitch October jobs report - The Department of Labor Statistics reported that 128,000 new jobs were added in October. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%, from September’s 50 year low of 3.5%. Average hourly wages rose 3% year over year from last October.
Stocks ended the week at record highs - A third rate cut from the Federal Reserve, encouraging third quarter corporate earnings, a stronger than expected October new jobs report, and a softening of trade and tariff tensions overcame a weak 1.9% annualized third quarter GDP increase and lifted stocks to all time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 27,347.31, up 1.4% from 26,958.06 last week. It is up 17.2% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,066.91, up 1.5% from 3,022.55 last week. It is up 22.3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,386.40, up 1.7% from 8,243.12 last week. The NASDAQ is up 26.4% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.73%, down from 1.80% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.21%, down from 2.29% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates higher this week - The October 31, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.78% almost unchanged from 3.75% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, unchanged from 3.18% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.43%, almost unchanged from 3.40% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stock markets higher for the week - Strong third quarter corporate earnings, and a softening of rhetoric on trade and tariffs encouraged investors this week. Stocks have risen for three straight weeks and major U.S. stock market indexes are just below all time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,958.06, up 0.7% from 26,770.20 last week. It is up 15.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,022.55, up 1.2% from 2,986.20 last week. It is up 20.6% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,243.12, up 1.9%, from 8,069.54 last week. The NASDAQ is up 24.2% year to date.
U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.80%, up slightly from 1.76% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.29%, up slightly from 2.25% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates higher this week - The October 24, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.75%, up from 3.69% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.18%, up slightly from 3.15% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.40%, almost unchanged from 3.35% last week. Nationwide existing home sales report - The National Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales rose 3.9% year over year from the number of homes sold last September. The nationwide median price in September was 5.9% higher than it was in September 2018. That marked the 91st straight month of year over year increases in the median price. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending October 19, 2019
Stock markets - Stocks rose early in the week as banks and investment firms reported third quarter earnings that beat analysts expectations. A weaker than expected retail sales report showed that consumers may be losing some confidence in the economy. Lastly, Boeing and Johnston and Johnston dragged down markets Friday on news of scandals showing they were aware of issues and didn’t report them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,770.20, down 0.2% from 26,816.59 last week. It is up 14.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,986.20, up 0.5% from 2,970.27 last week. It is up 19.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,089.54, up 0.4% from 8,057.04 last week. The NASDAQ is up 21.9% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.76%, unchanged from 1.76% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.25%, almost unchanged from 2.22% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates higher this week - The October 17, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.69%, up from 3.57% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.15%, up from 3.05% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.35%, almost unchanged from 3.35% last week. California existing home sales - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 404,030 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That marked a 5.8% increase over the number of homes sold last September; however, year to date home sales are down 3.1% through the first 9 months of 2019 compared to 2018. The statewide median price was $605,680, up 4.7% from September 2018. Housing inventory levels continued to shrink. There was a 3.2 month supply of homes for sale in September, down from a 4.2 month supply one year ago. On a regional basis: Los Angeles County had a median price of $663,110, up 4.5% from September 2018. The annualized number of sales increased 9.2% from last September. Orange County had a median price of $830,000, up 0.6% from September 2018. The annualized number of sales increased 16.4% from last September. Ventura County had a median price of $659,250, down 2.2% from September 2018. The annualized number of sales increased 12.9% from last September. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending October 12, 2019
Stocks end three week slide after potential China trade deal - President Trump announced that The U.S. and China have agreed on a trade deal. He called it a “phase one deal which now needs to be put in writing.” Stocks rose sharply in reaction. Unfortunately, bond yields also rose and mortgage interest rates were higher on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,816.59, up 0.9% from 26,573.73 last week. It is up 15% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,970.27, up 0.6% from 2,952.79 last week. It is up 18.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,057.04, up 0.9% from 7,982.47 last week. The NASDAQ is up 21.4% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields higher for the week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.76%, up from 1.52% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.22%, up from 2.01% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates lower this week - The October 10, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.57%, down from 3.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.05%, down from 3.14% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.35%, almost unchanged from 3.38% last week. Unfortunately, rates rose Friday and will be about 1/8% - 1/4% higher next week. Author, Syd Leibovitch |
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