Economic update for the week ending January 25, 2020
Stock markets lower for the week - After several weeks of steady gains, stocks declined moderately from all-time highs this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,989.73, down 1.2% from 29,348.10 last week. It’s up 1.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,295.47, down 1.0% from 3,329.62 last week. It’s up 2.0% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,314.91, down 0.8% from 9,388.94 last week. It’s up 3.8% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields lower week – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.70%, down from 1.84% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.14%, down from 2.29% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey released on January 23, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.60%, down slightly from 3.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.04%, almost unchanged from 3.06% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.28%, down from 3.39% last week. California existing home prices surged in December - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales totaled 398,880 in December on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 7.4% from December 2018. The median price paid for a home in December was $614,090, up 10.3% from December 2018. That marked the largest year over year price increase since May 2014, and the first double digit year over year price increase in 5 1/2 years. Inventory levels continued to drop. There was just a 2.5 month supply of homes listed for sale in December, down from a 3.5 month supply one year ago. Inventory levels dropped 26.5% from one year ago, and December marked the lowest inventory level in 7 years. On a regional basis, in Los Angeles County the median price increased 9.0% year over year. In Orange County the median price increased 7%. In Ventura County the median price increases 2.7%. U.S. Existing home sales surged in December - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of existing homes sales surged 10.8% in December, from the number of homes sold nationwide in December 2018. The median price increased 7.8% year over year in December. That marked the 94th straight month of year over year price increases. There was a 3 month supply of homes for sale, down from a 3.7 month supply last December. Author, Syd Leibovitch
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Economic update for the week ending January 18, 2020
Stock markets close at new record highs again this week - Investors were encouraged by a number of reports and developments this week. President Trump signed a long awaited phase one trade deal with China. Holiday retail sales were expected to be strong, and cane in even stronger than expected. U.S. Banks were among the first to report fourth quarter profits and profits were higher than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 29.348.10, up 1.8% from 28,823.77 last week. It’s up 2.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,329.62, up 2.0% from 3,265.35 last week. It’s up 3.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,388.94, up 2.3% from 9,178.86 last week. It’s up 4.6% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields almost unchanged this week – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.84%, almost unchanged from 1.83% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.29%, almost unchanged from 2.28% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey taken on January 16, 2020 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.65%, unchanged from 3.64% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.06%, unchanged from 3.07% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.39%, up from 3.30% last week. December existing-home sales data will be released next week. Look for those numbers in next Saturday’s update. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending January 10, 2019
U.S. Economy added 140,000 new Jobs in December – The unemployment rate held steady at a 50-year low - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 140,000 new jobs in December. That was below analysts’ expectations of 160,000 new jobs. For the year, 2.11 million jobs were created in 2019. Although, that was down from 2.68 million new jobs added in 2018, it marked a record of 10 straight years of job growth. The unemployment rate ended the year at 3.5%, down from 3.9% in December 2018. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 1969. Wage growth,which has been unusually stubborn over the last 10 years, rose just 2.9% year over year. It’s unusual to have such low wage growth with such low unemployment. Usually low unemployment means more competition for fewer workers, which pushes wages up. Rises in the minimum wage in many states and cities accounted for most of the wage gains. The gains were mainly at the lower wage levels. Other than wage growth, which was disappointing since the expansion began 10 years ago, everything else about these job reports have been stellar, marking a decade of record-breaking job growth. Stock Markets – Major indexes closed at records again on Thursday, and the Dow exceeding 29,000 for the first time ever. Unfortunately, stocks pulled back on Friday after a job report was released that did not meet expectations. Stocks ended the week higher in the first full week of trading of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,823.77, up 0.7% from 28,634.88 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,265.35, up 0.9% from 3,234.85 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,178.86, up 1.8% from 9,020.77 last week. U.S. treasury bond yields almost unchanged this week – The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.83%, almost unchanged from 1.80% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.28%, almost unchanged from 2.26% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates lower for the week - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey taken on January 9, 2010 reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.64%, down from 3.74% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.07%, down from 3.16% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.30%, down from 3.46% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending January 4, 2019
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,634.88, down from 28,645.26 last week. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,234.85, down from 3,240.02 last week. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,020.77, up from 9,006.62 last week. U.S. treasury bond yields slightly lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.80%, down from 1.88% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.26%, down from 2.32% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates steady this week - The January 2, 2010 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.72%, almost unchanged from 3.74% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.16%, almost unchanged from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.46%, almost unchanged from 3.45% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch |
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