Economic update for the week ending December 28, 2019
Stock markets closed the week at record highs for the 34th time this year - Although there was not a lot of new data this week, MasterCard reported that retail sales from November 1 to December 24 were up 3.5% from the same period last year. Stock markets are on track to end the year with their largest percentage gains in a decade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,645.26, up 0.7% from 28,455.09 last week. It is up 22.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,240.02, up 0.6% from 3,221.22 last week. It is up 28.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 9,006.62, up 0.9% from 8,924.97 last week. The NASDAQ is up 35.7% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields slightly lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.88%, down from 1.92% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.32%, almost unchanged from 2.34% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates mostly unchanged this week - The December 26, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.74%, unchanged from 3.73% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, unchanged from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.45%, up from 3.37% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch
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Economic update for the week ending December 21, 2019
Stock markets closed the week at record highs - Stock markets closed Friday with their 31st record high in 2019. After last week’s announced preliminary trade deal with China, a trade deal with Canada and Mexico passing in Congress, increased economic growth in Asia, signs of a Brexit deal, increased retail sales, strong consumer confidence, and solid U.S. corporate profits investors are ending year with great confidence. Not even the impeachment of a U.S President for only the third time in history could dampen investor confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,455.09, up 1.1% from 28,135.28 last week. It is up 22% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,221.22, up 1.7% from 3,168.80 last week. It is up 28.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,924.97, up 2.2%, from 8,734.88 last week. The NASDAQ is up 34.5% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields higher this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.92%, up from 1.82% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.34%, up from 2.26% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates unchanged this week - The December 19, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.73%, unchanged from 3.73% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, unchanged from 3.19% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.37%, almost unchanged from 3.36% last week. Unfortunately, rates rose late in the week. They will be a little higher next week. December California existing home sales report - The California Association of Realtors reported that state-wide existing single family home sales totaled 402,880 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in November, up 5.6% from the number of homes sold last November. The statewide median price was $589,770, down 2.6% from October, but up 6.4% from November 2018. The unsold inventory level, the measurement of how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales rate, stood at a 3.1 month supply in November, down from a 3.7 month supply one year ago. On a regional level sales were as follows: Los Angeles County had a 5.9% increase in the number of sales compared to one year ago. The median sales price was $594,840, up 7.4% from $553,940 last November. There was a 2.9 month supply of housing, down from 3.9 months one year ago. Ventura County had a 1.9% decrease in the number of sales from one year ago. The median sales price was $660,000, up 2.5% from $643,740 last November. The supply of housing for sale was 4.4 months, down from 5.4 months last November. Orange County had an increase of 6.9% in the number of sales from one year ago. The median sales price was $822,000, up 3.4% from $795,000 last November. The supply of housing for sale was 3.1 months, down from 3.9 months last November. December U.S. existing home sales report - The National Association of Realtors reported that the number of total existing home sales increased 2.7% in November from the number of homes sold last November. The nation-wide median price increased 5.4%, from November 2018. The supply of housing stood at a 3.7 month supply, down from 4 months last November. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending December 14, 2019
Stock markets rise on trade deal - A limited trade agreement was announced this week between The U.S. and China. This deal calls for halting the trade war. President Trump stated that with this “phase one” agreement new tariffs that were set to take effect Sunday will not be enacted, and tariffs placed on some Chinese goods in September will be cut from 15% to 7.5%. China will reduce tariffs on some U.S. goods. They also agreed to increasing purchases on U.S. agricultural goods. This was just one week after President Trump said he was in no rush to make a deal which caused stocks to fall last week. News of an impending deal began to leak out early in the week and an announcement was made Friday that a limited trade deal had been struck. Once again markets closed the week at new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,135.28 up 0.4% from 28,015.16 last week. It is up 20.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,168.80, up 0.7% from 3,145.91 last week. It is up 26.4% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,734.88, up 0.9%, from 8,656.53 last week. The NASDAQ is up 31.6% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.82%, almost unchanged from 1.84% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.26%, down slightly from 2.29% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates slightly higher this week - The December 12, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.73%, up slightly from 3.68% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.19%, up slightly from 3.14% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.36%, almost unchanged from 3.39% last week. Home sales data should be released next week. November home sales will be included in next weeks update. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending December 7, 2019
Employers Added 266,000 New Jobs in November - Unemployment rate dropped to lowest level since 1969 - The Department of Labor reported that 266,000 new jobs were added in November. This eclipsed the 187,000 new jobs expected by economists that were polled. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, from 3.6% in October. That marked the lowest unemployment level since 1969. Average hourly wages grew 3.1% from one year ago. Stocks rally after blockbuster jobs report to recover from losses earlier in the week - Despite strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday retail holiday sales, stock markets dropped sharply early in the week after President Trump announced increased tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil on Monday. Tuesday, he stated that he was in no rush to complete a trade deal with China, and that it may not happen until after the election. New tariffs are set to kick in December 15th, 2019. That’s a date we will be looking at. On Wednesday, he announced raising tariffs on French and UK imported wines and cheeses from 25% to 100%, because they were not paying their expected 2% of GDP to NATO. Fortunately, on Friday, a blockbuster jobs report stunned the market. Stocks made up all their losses from earlier in the week. Investors are quite optimistic with so many new jobs created, such low unemployment, historic stock market levels, and robust holiday retail sales. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,015.16, down 0.1% from 28,051.41 last week. It is up 20.3% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,145.91, almost unchanged from 3,140.98 last week. It is up 25.3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,656.53, down 0.1% from 8,665.47 last week. The NASDAQ is up 30.5% year to date. U.S. treasury bond yields end week higher - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.84%, up from 1.78% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.29%, up from 2.21% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. Mortgage rates remain near historic lows - The December 5, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.68%, unchanged from 3.68% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.14%, almost unchanged from 3.15% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.39%, down slightly from 3.43% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch |
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