Stock markets higher for the week - Strong third quarter corporate earnings, and a softening of rhetoric on trade and tariffs encouraged investors this week. Stocks have risen for three straight weeks and major U.S. stock market indexes are just below all time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,958.06, up 0.7% from 26,770.20 last week. It is up 15.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,022.55, up 1.2% from 2,986.20 last week. It is up 20.6% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,243.12, up 1.9%, from 8,069.54 last week. The NASDAQ is up 24.2% year to date. 


U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.80%, up slightly from 1.76% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.29%, up slightly from 2.25% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 


Mortgage rates higher this week -  The October 24, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.75%, up from 3.69% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.18%, up slightly from 3.15% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.40%, almost unchanged from 3.35% last week. 

Nationwide existing home sales report - The National Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales rose 3.9% year over year from the number of homes sold last September. The nationwide median price in September was 5.9% higher than it was in September 2018. That marked the 91st straight month of year over year increases in the median price. 

Author, 

Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending October 19, 2019

Stock markets - Stocks rose early in the week as banks and investment firms reported third quarter earnings that beat analysts expectations. A weaker than expected retail sales report showed that consumers may be losing some confidence in the economy. Lastly, Boeing and Johnston and Johnston dragged down markets Friday on news of scandals showing they were aware of issues and didn’t report them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,770.20, down 0.2% from 26,816.59 last week. It is up 14.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,986.20, up 0.5% from 2,970.27 last week. It is up 19.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,089.54, up 0.4% from 8,057.04 last week. The NASDAQ is up 21.9% year to date. 


U.S. treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.76%, unchanged from 1.76% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.25%, almost unchanged from 2.22% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 


Mortgage rates higher this week -  The October 17, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.69%, up from 3.57% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.15%, up from 3.05% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.35%, almost unchanged from 3.35% last week. 


California existing home sales - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing single-family home sales totaled 404,030 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That marked a 5.8% increase over the number of homes sold last September; however, year to date home sales are down 3.1% through the first 9 months of 2019 compared to 2018. The statewide median price was $605,680, up 4.7% from September 2018. Housing inventory levels continued to shrink. There was a 3.2 month supply of homes for sale in September, down from a 4.2 month supply one year ago. On a regional basis: Los Angeles County had a median price of $663,110, up 4.5% from September 2018. The annualized number of sales  increased 9.2% from last September. Orange County had a median price of $830,000, up 0.6% from September 2018. The annualized number of sales increased 16.4% from last September. Ventura County had a median price of $659,250, down 2.2% from September 2018. The annualized number of sales  increased 12.9% from last September.


Author, 

Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending October 12, 2019

Stocks end three week slide after potential China trade deal  - President Trump announced that The U.S. and China have agreed on a trade deal. He called it a “phase one deal which now needs to be put in writing.” Stocks rose sharply in reaction. Unfortunately, bond yields also rose and mortgage interest rates were higher on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,816.59, up 0.9% from 26,573.73 last week. It is up 15% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,970.27, up 0.6% from 2,952.79 last week. It is up 18.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,057.04, up 0.9% from 7,982.47 last week. The NASDAQ is up 21.4% year to date. 


U.S. treasury bond yields higher for the week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.76%, up from 1.52% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.22%, up from 2.01% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 


Mortgage rates lower this week -  The October 10, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.57%, down from 3.65% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.05%, down from 3.14% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.35%, almost unchanged from 3.38% last week. Unfortunately, rates rose Friday and will be about 1/8% - 1/4%  higher next week.


Author, 

Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending October 5, 2019
 
September jobs report - Unemployment rate drops to a 50-year low - The Labor Department reported that 136,000 new jobs were added in September. While that was slightly lower than the 147,000 new jobs that analysts expected, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a 50 year low. Year to date U.S. employers have added an average of 161,000 new jobs a month over the first 9 months, down from a monthly average of 223,000 new jobs added in 2018. Wage growth moderated. Average hourly wages grew 2.9% year over year from last September, down from a 3.2% year over year increase in August. 
 
Stocks dropped for a third consecutive week - Stocks declined after a disappointing manufacturing report revealed that manufacturing activity dropped more than expected in September. That marked the second month in a row that manufacturing constricted as manufacturers have cut output on fears that tariffs will lower sales. A positive jobs report was released on Friday. News that the unemployment rate was at a 50-year low rallied the markets to make up much of the losses earlier in the week. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,573.73, down 0.9% from 26,820.25 last week. It is up 13.9% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,952.79 down 0.3% from 2,961.79 last week. It is up 17.8% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,982.47, up 0.5% from 7,936.63 last week. The NASDAQ is up 20.3% year to date. 


U.S. treasury bond yields lower for the week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 1.52%, down from 1.69% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.01%, down from 2.13% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates often follow bond yields. 


Mortgage rates unchanged this week -  The October 3, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 3.65%, unchanged from 3.64% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.14%, almost unchanged from 3.16% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.38%, unchanged from 3.38% last week. 



Author, 


Syd Leibovitch