Economic update for the week ending November 30, 2018 

Stock markets posted the largest weekly gain in 2018  - Stocks ended November by soaring about 5% this week. It marked a dramatic rebound  after stocks fell sharply into negative territory for the year over the last two weeks. Strong  consumer spending data for  Black Friday and Cyber Monday got the week started. Federal Reserve Chairman Thomas Powell's comments on Wednesday that interest rate hikes would likely end in 2019 led to one of the best single daily gains ever for stocks. It also resulted in bond yields falling. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fall to the lowest level in more than 10 weeks.  Friday’s signing of a replacement to NAFTA by President Trump, Canada, and Mexico also lifted markets to finish the week with the highest weekly gain this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,538.46,  up sharply from 24,285.95 last week. It was up 5.2% this week and is up 3.3% year to date.  The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,760.17, up  from 2,632.56 last week.  It was up 4.8% for the weekand is up 3.2% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,330.54, up from 6,938.96 last week.   It was up 5.6% for the week and up 6.2% year to date.  
Treasury Bond Yields slightly lower this week -  The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.01%, down slightly from 3.05% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.30%, unchanged from 3.31%  last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates unchanged this week - The November 28, 2018 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.81%, unchanged from 4.81% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.25% unchanged from 4.24% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.12%, up slightly from 4.09% last week. 


Author, 

Syd Leibovitch

​Economic update for the week ending November 24, 2018


Stocks dropped into negative territory for the year - Stocks had another losing week. Technology stocks which have been under pressure continued to decline. Oil prices dropped for the seventh straight week which hurt energy stocks. Retailers are anticipating disappointing earnings for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 24,285.95, down from 24,413.22 last week. It is down 1.8% year to date.  The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,632.56, down from 2,736.27 last week.  It’s down 1.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 6,938.96, down from 7,147.87 last week.   It’s up 0.5% year to date. 
 
Treasury Bond Yields slightly lower this week -  The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.05%, down slightly from 3.08% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.31% down slightly from 3.33% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates lower this week - The November 21, 2018 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.81%, down from 4.94% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.24%, down from 4.36% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.09%, down from 4.14% last week. I’d expect to see rates a little lower in next week’s survey, as rates dropped late in the week. 


Nationwide existing home sales totals rebound in October - The National Association of Realtors reported that  existing-home sales which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.22 million in October. Sales are down 5.1% from a year ago (5.5 million in October 2017).  The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was  up 3.8% from October 2017.October’s price increase marks the 80th straight month of year-over-year gains. Housing inventory increase from 1.80 million a year ago to 1.85 million in October. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply, up from 3.9 months a year ago.


Author, 


Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending November 10, 2018


Stock markets finished higher for a second straight week - Stocks markets have gained 5% in the last two weeks. That has made up about 1/2 of October’s drop. We are now just 5% below the all time highs set in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,989.30, up  from 25,270.23 last week. It is up 5.1% year to date.  The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,781.01, up  from 2,723.06 last week.  It’s up 4.0% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,406.90, up from 7,356.99 last week.   It’s up 7.3% year to date. 
 
Treasury Bond Yields slightly lower this week -  The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.19%, down from 3.22% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.40%, down from 3.46% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates were higher this week - The November 8, 2018 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.94%, up from 4.83% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.33%, up from 4.23%  last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.14%, up from 4.04% last week. 


Author, 
Syd Leibovitch

Economic update for the week ending November 3, 2018

U.S. Employers added 250,000 new jobs in October - Wages grow at fastest pace in almost 10 years - Unemployment remains at lowest rate since 1969 - The Department of Labor Statistics reported Friday that 250,000 new jobs were added in October. That eclipsed the 190,000 new jobs analysts had expected. Job growth has now hit a record of 97 straight months. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, the lowest national unemployment rate in 49 years. Average hourly wages were up 3.1% in October from last October. That was the largest year over gain in almost 10 years. 


Stock markets  were up about 2.5% for the week - As earnings reporting season for the third quarter began to come to a close, many companies reported profits this week that beat expectations. That was a welcome relief to investors who saw stocks fall in the previous two weeks as some companies reported disappointing results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,270.23, up  from 24,688.31 last week. It is up 2.2% year to date.  The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,723.06, up  from 2,658.69 last week.  It’s up 1.8% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,356.99, up from 7,167.21 last week.   It’s up 6.6% year to date. 
 
Treasury Bond Yields sharply higher this week -  The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.22%, up from 3.08% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.46%, up  from 3.32% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. 
 
Mortgage rates were lower this week, but rates rose Friday after the October jobs report - The November 1, 2018 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.83% almost unchanged from 4.86% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.23% down from 4.29% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.04%, down from 4.14% last week. Unfortunately, rates began rising on Friday after the jobs report revealed the highest wage gains in almost 10 years.Experts feel that higher wages will lead to higher inflation. Next weeks rates will be quite a bit higher. The 30 year fixed will probably hit 5% next week. 


Author,

Syd Leibovitch