Economic update for the week ending May 18, 2019
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,764.00, down 0.7% from 25,942.37 last week. It’s up 10.4% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,859.53, down 0.8% from 2,881.40 last week. It is up 14.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,816.28, down 1.3%, from 7,916.94 last week. The NASDAQ is up 17.8% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields continue to drop - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.39%, down from 2.47% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.82%, down from 2.89% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. Mortgage rates almost unchanged this week - The May 16, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.07%, down slightly from 4.10% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.54%, down slightly from 3.57% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.66%, slightly higher from 3.63% last week. Lower rates and moderating prices made California homes more affordable in Q1 2019 - The California Association of Realtors reported that the percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median priced home in California rose to 32% in the first quarter of 2019. It is up from 28% in the fourth quarter of 2018, and up from 31% for the first quarter of 2018. The minimum annual income of $114,860 was needed to purchase a $545,820 statewide median-prices existing single family home.Condos and townhomes were more affordable. 41% or California households could afford a median priced Condominium or townhome. That was up from 37% in the last quarter of 2018. California home prices soar in April - prices hit new statewide median price record - The California Association of Realtors reported that the median price paid for a resale home in April was $602,920, up 6.5%, month over month, from $565,880 in March. Year over year the median price was up 3.8% from $584,460 last April. Prices dropped in the last six months in 2018, but have soared in April to exceed the peak levels set last June. The number of existing home sales in California totaled 396,769on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down 4.8% from the number of homes sold last April. The unsold inventory index showed a 3.4 month supply of homes for sale, up from a 3.2 month supply one year ago. On a regional basis the median price paid for a home in Los Angeles County rose 3%, Orange County rose 0.9%, and Ventura County dropped 2.3% from April 2018. Author, Syd Leibovitch
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Economic update for the week ending May 11, 2019
Stocks retreated this week among trade tensions - After several months of optimism that a trade deal with China was imminent, talks broke down this week causing stocks to lose ground and mortgage rates to fall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,942.37, down 2.1% from 26,504.95 last week. It’s up 11.2% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,881.40, down 2.2% from 2,945.64 last week. It is up 14.9% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,916.94, down 3%, from 8,164.00 last week. The NASDAQ is up 19.3% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.47%, down from 2.54% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.89% down from 2.93% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. Mortgage rates dropped this week - The May 9, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.10%, down from 4.14% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.57%, down slightly from 3.60% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.63%, down from 3.68% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending May 4, 2019
U.S. Employers add 263,000 new jobs in April - Unemployment rate at lowest level since 1969 - The Labor Department reported that 263,000 new jobs were added in April. That crushed experts expectations of 190,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate dropped from 3.8% in March to 3.6% in April, the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. Average hourly wages were up a healthy 3.2% from 12 months ago. Stocks almost unchanged this week - The NASDAQ and S&P 500 both set all time highs this week. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at their FOMC Meeting on Thursday citing that inflation is under control even though growth is strong. Lower rates have been a key development in the upswing in the stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,504.95, down 0.1% from 26,543.33 last week. It’s up 13.6% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,945.64, up 0.2% from 2,948.88 last week. It is up 17.5% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,164.00, up 0.2% from 8,146.40 last week. The NASDAQ is up 23.0% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields stable this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.54% unchanged from 2.51% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.93%, unchanged from 2.92% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. Mortgage rates lower this week - The May 2, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.14%, down from 4.20% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.60%, down slightly from 3.64% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.68%, down from 3.77% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending April 27, 2019
NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed the week at all time record highs -Strong corporate earnings, lower interest rates, and an easing of trade tensions encouraged investors who pushed stocks to record highs. A strong first quarter GDP report released Friday showed that the economy grew 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019, its best first quarter showing in six years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,543.33, down 0.1% from 26,559.54 last week. It’s up 13.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,938.88, up 1.2% from 2,905.03 last week. It is up 17.3% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 8,146.40, up 1.9% from 7,998.06 last week. The NASDAQ is up 22.8% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields lower this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.51%, down from 2.57% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.92%, down from 2.96% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. Mortgage rates almost unchanged this week - The April 25, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.20%, up slightly from 4.17% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.64%, up slightlyfrom 3.62% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.77%, almost unchanged from 3.78% last week. March U.S. existing home sales report - The National Association of Realtors reported that the total number of existing home sales dropped 5.4% year over year from the number of sales last March. The median sales price increased 3.8% year over year. Inventory levels were up 2.4% from the number of homes for sale last March. The unsold inventory level represented a 3.9 month supply of homes for sale, up from a 3.6 month supply one year ago. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending April 20, 2019
Stock markets hover near all time highs - In a holiday shortened week stocks closed almost unchanged. About 1/3 of companies have reported first quarter earnings so far. Most of those companies had a strong first quarter. China’s economic numbers have come in stronger than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,559.54, up 0.6% from 26,412.30 last week. It’s up 13.9% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,905.03, down 0.1% from 2,907.41 last week. It is up 15.9% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,998.06, up 0.2% from 7,984.16 last week. The NASDAQ is up 20.5% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields unchanged this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.57%, almost unchanged from 2.56% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.96%, also almost unchanged from 2.97% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. Mortgage rates higher this week - The April 18, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.17%, up slightly from 4.12% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.62%, almost unchanged from 3.60% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.78%, down slightly from 3.80% last week. March existing sales and price report- The California Association of Realtors reported that total existing home sales totaled 397,200 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in March. That was down 6.3% from the number of sales last March. The median price paid for a home in California in March was $565,880, up 0.2% from March 2018. There was a 3.6 month supply of homes for sale, up from a 2.9 month supply one year ago. On a regional basis: Los Angeles saw a 13% year over year declinein the number of sales, and a 0.2% decline in the median sales price from last March. Orange County saw a 12.5% drop in the number of sales and a median price decline of 1.8% from last March. The number of homes sold in Ventura County decreased 15.4% from last March, and the median price declined 0.2% from March 2018. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending April 13, 2019
Stock markets slightly higher this week - Stocks recorded solid gains on Friday to erase losses earlier in the week. Markets ended the week just slightly higher. Investors are waiting for companies to report first quarter corporate profits. Financial stocks led the market following a solid quarterly earnings report from JPMorgan Chase. The week also marked the 10 year anniversary of the S&P 500 bull market. It’s just 1% below it’s all time high set September 20, 2108. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,412.30, almost unchanged from 26,424.99 last week. It’s up 13.3% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,907.41, up 0.5% from 2,892.74 last week. It is up 16% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,984.16, up 0.6% from 7,938.69 last week. The NASDAQ is up 20.3% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields higher for the second straight week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.56%, up from 2.50% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.97%, up from 2.91% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. Mortgage rates higher this week - The April 11, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.12%, up from 4.08% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.60%, up slightly from 3.56% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.80, up from 3.66% last week. Home sales data is usually released by The California Association of Realtors and The National Association of Realtors around the 20th of the month. Hopefully, they will be released in time for next weeks update. Author, Syd Leibovitch Economic update for the week ending April 4, 2019
Employers add 196,000 new jobs in March - The Department of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 196,000 new jobs in March. This exceeded analysts expectations of 175,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate held at 3.8%, a 50 year low. Average hourly wages grew 3.2% from last March. Stocks continue to rise - 2019 has begun with a booming stock market. Markets are already up 13% to 17% year to date. The U.S. economy which appeared to be losing steam just a few months ago is taking off again. Overseas economies which seemed to be slowing are also rebounding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 26,424.99, up 1.9% from 25,928.68 last week. It’s up 13.3% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,892.74, up 2.1% from 2,834.40 last week. It is up 15.4% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,938.69, up 2.7% from 7,729.32 last week. The NASDAQ is up 16.9% year to date. Treasury Bond Yields higher after dropping for 14 weeks - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.50%, up from 2.41% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.91%, up from 2.81% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yield yields. 30-year Mortgage rates remain at lowest levels since 2017 - The April 4, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.08%, almost unchanged from 4.06% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.56%, unchanged from 3.57% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.66%, down from 3.75% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stock Markets have their best first quarter in over 10 years - Stocks ended the week with big gains. The first quarter of 2019 marked the largest percentage quarterly gain in a decade. The S&P 500 ended the quarter up over 13%. It is just 3% off its all time high after a dramatic rebound from being down almost 20% from its all time high in mid December. Investors have celebrated lower interest rates, optimism on trade with China, low unemployment, and low inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,928.68, up 1.7% from 25,502.32 last week. It’s up 11.2% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,834.40, up 1.2% from 2,800.71 last week. It is up 13.1% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,729.32, up 1.1% from 7,642.67 last week. The NASDAQ is up 16.5% year to date.
Treasury Bond Yields continue to drop - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.41%, down from 2.44% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.81%, down from 2.88% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. 30-year Mortgage rates hit lowest levels since 2017 - The March 28, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.06%, down from 4.28% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.57%, down from 3.71% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.75%, down from 3.84% last week. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stocks lost ground this week – Stock markets finished the week lower this week for just the third weekly loss of the year. The Fed issued comments this week announcing that they had put interest rate hikes on hold for the remainder of 2019, citing low inflation numbers and increased risk of slowing to the economy due to global pressures. This led investors to fear that The Fed knows something investors don’t and they became more cautious. Bond yields surged which drove down mortgage rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,502.32, down 1.3% from 25,848.87 last week. It’s up 9.3% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,800.71, down 0.8% from 2,822.48 last week. It is up 11.7% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,642.67, down 0.6% from 7,688.53 last week. The NASDAQ is up 15.2% year to date.
Treasury Bond Yields drop to the lowest levels since 2017 - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.44%, down from 2.59% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 2.88%, down from 3.02% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. 30-year Mortgage rates dropped to 4% this week - The March 21, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.28%, down from 4.31% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.71%, down from 3.76% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.84%, unchanged from 3.84% last week. Interest rates dropped on Thursday and Friday after the Freddie Mac survey was released. By the end of the day Friday we had clients locked into 30-year fixed rates below 4%! California existing home sales rebound in February - The California Association of Realtors released their data for February home sales. Closed escrows on existing homes rebounded from January's 10-year low level of 358,470 units, and increased 11.3% to 399,080 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in February. That marked a 5.6% year over drop from 422,910 closings last February. The median price for a home in California was $534,140 up 2.2% year over year from $522,440 last February. The median price is the point at which 1/2 the homes sell for more and 1/2 sell for less. Inventory levels have risen for the 11th consecutive month after dropping for three straight years to historic lows. There was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in February, up from a 3.6 month supply in February 2018. U.S. existing home sales surged 11.8% in February - The National Association of Realtors announced that the number of sales of single family homes, condominiums, townhomes, and coops increased 11.8% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.51 million in February. Year over year sales were down 1.8% from February 2018. The median price paid for a home nationwide was up 3.2% from last February. That marked the 84th straight month of year over year increases in the median price. Theinventory level was was at a 3.5 month supply at the current sales level. That was just barely higher than a 3.6 month supply in February 2018. Author, Syd Leibovitch Stocks have another strong week -Stock markets recovered from last week’s losses and extended one of the strongest starts of the year in history, as major indexes are up 10-16% for the year. U.S. and overseas markets surged to the highest levels since November. Low inflation data, reduced trade fears, strong economic data and lower interest rates encouraged investors. The S&P 500 bull market has now entered its 10th year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 25,848.87, up 1.6% % from 25,450.24 last week. It’s up 10.8% year to date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 2,822.48, up 2.9% from 2,743.07 last week. It is up 12.6% year to date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 7,688.53, up 3.8% from 7,408.14 last week. The NASDAQ is up 15.9% year to date.
Treasury Bond Yields almost unchanged this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.59%, down from 2.62% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.02%, almost unchanged from 3.00% last week. We watch treasury bond yields because mortgage rates follow bond yields. Mortgage rates drop to the lowest level in one year - The March 14, 2019 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average was 4.31%, down from 4.41% last week. The 15-year fixed was 3.76%, down from 3.83% last week. The 5-year ARM was 3.84%, down slightly from 3.87% last week. February home sales figures will be released next week. Author, Syd Leibovitch |
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